Autumn has arrived in Toronto’s housing market without the usual rush. Open houses are quieter, buyers more hesitant, and many families are asking the same question: is it time to buy, or time to wait?
According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, 5,040 homes changed hands across the Greater Toronto Area in September, 9 percent fewer than a year earlier. It was the third annual decline in a row and the steepest since January. The average selling price fell 5.1 percent to $1,006,409, and the benchmark price slipped 4.7 percent to $917,600. Condominium apartments were hit hardest, with the average price down 7.7 percent to $605,257, while townhouse sales dropped by almost 13 percent.
TRREB economist Jason Mercer says there is substantial pent-up demand in the region, but buyers want confidence about their jobs and about inflation before they commit. That confidence is in short supply. Toronto’s unemployment rate stood at 6.8 percent in August and inflation at 3 percent. The Bank of Canada held its key rate at 2.25 percent in September but warned of higher inflation risks, and some economists, including at UBS, now expect rate increases in the coming months.
Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers has reminded Canadians that the central bank can cool demand but cannot solve housing affordability on its own, because interest rates are a blunt tool. TRREB president Daniel Steinfeld also points to upcoming municipal elections across the GTA as one more source of uncertainty for buyers.
For Polish families in Toronto and Mississauga, many of whom dream of a first home or a bigger one for a growing family, the market is sending mixed signals. Prices are lower than a year ago, but borrowing may soon cost more. In this market, patience and careful planning may be the most valuable assets of all.
